Netanyahu’s chances of forming the next government and remaining prime minister are real but not favored—roughly in the 25–40% range according to final polls and prediction markets, with significant uncertainty due to coalition arithmetic.
What the final pre-election polls showed
Israeli law banned new public polls after Friday. The last major surveys (Channels 12/13, Kan, Maariv, and averages) consistently pointed to a tight race with neither major bloc near a clear majority of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset:Jpost
Netanyahu’s right-religious bloc (Likud + Otzma Yehudit/Ben-Gvir + Religious Zionism + ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism): typically 48–53 seats (most common figure around 50).
Opposition “change” bloc (Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar + Naftali Bennett’s Together + Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu + Democrats and others): 52–56 seats.
Arab parties (Joint List and Ra’am): roughly 14–16 seats.
Yashar (Eisenkot) usually edged Likud as the largest single party (around 22 seats vs. 19–21 for Likud). A few outlier polls (e.g., some from Channel 14 or i24NEWS) showed Netanyahu’s bloc closer to or slightly above 55–59, but the mainstream consensus put the opposition a few seats ahead.Ynetnews
Neither side was projected to reach 61 without deals involving smaller parties, potential defectors, or (more controversially) Arab parties.
Prediction markets and betting odds
Markets have generally priced Eisenkot as the favorite to become the next prime minister:
Polymarket and similar platforms: Eisenkot often around 50–63%, Netanyahu around 25–30% (sometimes higher in older data).
Betting odds (e.g., Oddschecker): Eisenkot around 4/5 (~56% implied), Netanyahu 11/8 (~42%).Oddschecker
Some forecasting models give Netanyahu higher effective chances of remaining PM in the short term because of the difficulty of opposition coalition-building or the possibility of deadlock leading to new elections (with him as caretaker).
Why the outcome is highly uncertain
Coalition negotiations matter more than the popular vote or largest party. Israel’s system almost always requires multi-party deals. The opposition is ideologically diverse and many parties have ruled out sitting with Netanyahu. Some also resist relying on Arab parties for a majority.
Netanyahu is a highly experienced dealmaker who has repeatedly assembled governments from difficult arithmetic.
High turnout (already the strongest in decades as of this afternoon) and last-minute shifts among undecided voters (estimated around 20–25% in some surveys) could move several seats.
Possible scenarios include: Netanyahu assembling a right-religious majority or minority government; Eisenkot leading a broader coalition (possibly with outside support); a unity arrangement; or prolonged deadlock leading to new elections in early 2027, with Netanyahu staying on as caretaker in the interim.
Bottom line: Polls and markets currently lean against Netanyahu easily forming a stable government, but his path is far from closed. Exit polls (expected around 10 p.m. Israel time) and the actual seat distribution will clarify the numbers, after which weeks of negotiations will determine the real outcome. The race remains tight and fluid.
