Week 10 of the NFL season began with the Washington Commanders defeating the New York Giants 24-21 at MetLife Stadium on Thursday night.
What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?
Our NFL handicapping team of Matt Jacob, Jeremy Pond and Matt Russell combine to give their best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season.
Odds subject to change.
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 49.5)
Pond: New England is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball ahead of Sunday’s clash with Detroit in Munich.
However, one player who is healthy and sitting on a breakout performance is running back Corey Kiner. The RB2 for the Patriots finished with eight carries for 55 yards and a touchdown in last week’s loss to the Green Bay Packers. Kiner took advantage of his more expanded role after starter Rhamondre Stevenson went down with a knee injury.
Stevenson made somewhat of a surprise appearance at practice this week, albeit in a limited capacity. That raised some eyebrows, signaling to some he might give it a go at Allianz Arena. However, if he does dress, I still firmly believe a healthy Kiner will garner the bulk of the carries.
Kiner ran the ball a season-high 11 times for 57 yards in an Oct. 18 win against the New York Jets. A week before he had a 52-yard effort on just six carries in New England’s victory against Las Vegas.
Back Kiner to clear his rushing yardage, as he’ll need to be productive on the ground if New England has have any chance at winning this game.
Bet: RB Corey Kiner 50+ rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5, 46.5) at Tennessee Titans
Russell: We just saw this point spread setup before the Titans went on their bye week. Just flip three points for home-field advantage with Tennessee going from 13.5-point underdogs at Cincinnati to 10.5 at home to Jacksonville.
You can debate whether you think the Bengals or Jaguars should have the higher power rating to build a betting market off of, but the fact that it’s an interesting conversation is kind of the point — and whatever gap you have with Jacksonville ahead of Cincinnati is made up for by the Titans having nearly won in a shootout with the Bengals.
Jacksonville made a big splash at the trade deadline this week, parlaying defensive additions of Jordan Davis, Davon Godchaux and Jessie Bates III with back-to-back blowout wins into their highest market rating of the season, tied with the Bills, 49ers, and Bears atop the league. That is well above the range installed before the season when Jacksonville was lined at 9.5 wins.
Pummeling the Colts the week it became clear that the current situation wasn’t working for Indianapolis before taking on Joe Fagnano on a short week, has evidently made bettors forget about an uninspiring trip to neutral-site London, where the Jags barely escaped the Eagles and lost to the Texans.
Is it possible all the hoopla about the Jaguars is a little excessive, at least until they have a bit more on their resume?
No, the Titans aren’t going to fill that hole in Jacksonville’s CV, but Tennessee is finally looking more like a professional outfit in their last three games, and might not deserve to be ranked down with the Raiders (post-Kirk Cousins trade), Colts and below the Chargers and Jets in the grand scheme of things. Once we get a larger sample size, we should see that this line should be closer to a touchdown.
Bet: Titans +10.5 (-108, DraftKings)
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 40.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Jacob: Like most NFL fans, I’m curious to see how Fernando Mendoza performs in his first NFL start. Curious … but not at all confident it will be successful. That’s because the 2026 No. 1 overall pick and reigning Heisman trophy winner is immediately getting thrown into the deep end of the pool by facing the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense.
Seattle is yielding a league-low 155.1 passing yards per game — exactly six fewer yards per game than Minnesota’s second-ranked pass defense gives up. The Seahawks are also first in yards allowed per attempt (5.48); the Giants are second, surrendering a full half-yard more (5.98).
Two weeks ago, the Bears’ Caleb Williams picked Seattle’s secondary apart, throwing for 247 yards. However, no other opposing quarterback has racked up more than 189 air yards against the Seahawks — not Drake Maye (178 yards), not Patrick Mahomes (165 yards) and not Bo Nix (107).
Will Mendoza have some fourth-quarter, garbage-time, stat-padding opportunities Sunday? More than likely. But I believe the Raiders’ top priority will be to instill confidence in their new franchise quarterback. That means lots of short, safe passes that don’t pick up huge chunks of yards.
Unless Mendoza connects on at least one deep ball — keep in mind, of the 178 completions Seattle has allowed, only nine have gone for more than 20 yards (including just one longer than 30) — he’ll fall shy of his yardage projection.
Bet: Francisco Mendoza under 189.5 passing yards (-135, BetMGM)
Los Angeles Rams (-9.5, 39.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Jacob: When these NFC West rivals squared off a month ago in Los Angeles, the QB matchup was Matthew Stafford vs. Jacoby Brissett. And Stafford got to throw to Davante Adams for part of the game and Puka Nacua for the entire game, with the duo accounting for 119 of Stafford’s 222 passing yards.
Final score: Cardinals 18, Rams 16.
The quarterback matchup this time around? Stafford vs. rookie Carson Beck (who was Arizona’s third-stringer as recently as two weeks ago). The current status of Adams and Nacua? Injured reserve. That leaves Konata Mumpfield (11 catches, 162 yards for the season) as Stafford’s top wide receiver target.
So if these teams could only combine for 34 points (and two touchdowns) four weeks ago, how are they going to reach at least 40 points Sunday with Brissett (now in Baltimore) replaced by a rookie making his first NFL start, and with Adams and Nacua in street clothes?
True, a total this low leaves very little margin for error. Also true: Arizona scored 10 total points in two games against Seattle (including just three last week) and 16 points against Denver. And L.A. — which finally has Aaron Donald and Myles Garrett playing alongside each other — has held its last two opponents to 22 points (and its last four to an average of 12.8 points).
There’s this, too: So far this season, the under is 11-5 when the total closes at 40 points or less.
Bet: Under 39.5 points (-108, BetMGM)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 49.5)
Pond: It has taken a while, but tight end Darnell Washington is finally coming into his own in the Pittsburgh offense.
Washington, who stands 6-foot-7 and is listed at 264 pounds, towered over the Cleveland defense last week, en route to finishing with three catches for a season-high 94 yards. He was the team’s leading receiver in a game where running backs Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle combined for 199 yards on the ground and two touchdowns.
Now, Washington gets another crack at the Cincinnati defense he found success against in their first confrontation. He recorded three receptions for 67 yards in a 30-27 victory back on Sept. 27 in Pittsburgh.
Washington has hauled in at least three catches in four of his last six games, giving me confidence he can produce an effort similar to the one he delivered in the first meeting.
Bets: TE Darnell Washington over 2.5 receptions (-102) and over 28.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel
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